According to CapitalSpectator.com, the second quarter of US economic activity is expected to show a slight improvement from the first quarter, with preliminary estimates suggesting a 1.9% increase in output for the April-through-June period. This would mark the first quarter-over-quarter improvement since the surge in output in the third quarter of 2023. However, there is still a high level of uncertainty surrounding second-quarter economic activity due to limited data availability for April and reliance on guesswork for May and June.
Some analysts are concerned about the rising risk of stagflation in the US, where inflation remains sticky or rebounds while growth slows. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has dismissed this concern, suggesting that the risk is not significant. Despite these uncertainties, Carson Group’s global macro strategist Sonu Varghese believes that US economic activity remains robust, particularly driven by consumer spending. While some economists warn of a potential slowdown in economic growth in early Q2, today’s median estimate of a 1.9% increase in GDP for the quarter is encouraging. It is still too early to definitively predict economic activity, but it provides a baseline for monitoring how the economy evolves in the coming weeks. Overall, cautious optimism seems to prevail regarding the US economic outlook.
